Valencia's housing emergency becomes chronic

The 2025 4Q Report by the Housing Observatory Chair at the Universitat Politècnica de València confirms that Valencia has entered a structural housing emergency and demands political action in the face of an 'emergency that no longer affects only traditionally vulnerable groups', but 'has turned into a generational divide that is driving young people, essential workers and middle-income families out of the city'.

According to the Observatory, 'the chronic nature of the problem is not the result of a sudden crisis, but of more than ten years of misguided decisions, prolonged inaction and, in particular, the replacement of technical analysis with a political narrative disconnected from reality. Each year without rigorous action not only exacerbates the problem, but also makes its solution irreversibly more expensive."

Over €4,000/m² and only 137 new homes available in the entire city

The increasingly exorbitant figures serve to illustrate the scale of the problem. 'The average price of new multi-family housing has exceeded €4,000/m², while the available supply has been reduced to only 137 new homes in the whole city. This double phenomenon marks a point of no return. When a city can no longer accommodate those who sustain it, the problem ceases to be economic and becomes social,' says Fernando Cos-Gayón López, director of the Chair. 'And that is exactly what is happening in Valencia,' he adds.

"Since 2016, and with particular intensity since 2019, the data has been clear, public and repeated. Sustained price increases, the disappearance of effective social housing, shrinking supply and increased pressure on households. None of this was unpredictable. We are not facing an unexpected crisis, 'says Cos-Gayón.' We are facing the direct result of having ignored a perfectly known diagnosis for years. '

For the Observatory, one of the most harmful elements of the last decade has been the construction of a political narrative that has supplanted knowledge.' In the face of the data, reassuring messages, announcements without a technical basis, and measures designed for the media cycle have been disseminated. The narrative creates a false sense of action, but it does not build housing, 'warns the director of the Observatory.' And what is worse, it has served to justify policies that have worsened exactly what they claimed to combat.

Cos-Gayón: 'Legislating out of fear of landlords does not protect tenants, it expels them from the system.'

In this sense, the case of renting is paradigmatic. "The refusal to effectively protect landlords from squatting and legal uncertainty has had the effect that the Chair had been warning about: a massive withdrawal of housing from the traditional market. The result has not been greater access, but extreme scarcity, skyrocketing prices and the accelerated expulsion of the most vulnerable households. Legislating based on fear of landlords does not protect tenants, 'Cos-Gayón stresses.' It expels them from the system."

'Today, renting in Valencia is a residual, fragile and deeply exclusionary market,' says Cos-Gayón, 'and not because of excess demand, but because of the deliberate destruction of supply. The rental disaster is not a collateral consequence, but the direct result of policies that confused moral intention with real effectiveness.'

Added to this scenario, the report notes, is rapid population growth, without the housing stock or public policies being scaled to absorb it. 'This is not an ideological debate, but a basic structural relationship: when the population grows, and the capacity to produce housing does not, the pressure always falls on the most vulnerable.'

The VIVE Plan, a green shoot... but two years away

The only 'green shoots', according to the Observatory, have appeared in recent months. "In this context, the VIVE Plan represents an opportunity that should be viewed positively. Its implementation will presumably enable the launch of a new generation of public housing in 2026 through public-private partnerships. However, we must be rigorous: these homes will not be available for two years after the launch of the plan. The VIVE Plan is necessary and is heading in the right direction, 'says Cos-Gayón,' but it cannot be used as an excuse to deny the current emergency or to continue delaying structural decisions.'

'Taking action requires definitively abandoning the narrative and returning to the evidence,' warns the director of the Observatory. "Mobilising land, producing affordable housing in a sustained manner, legally protecting owners to recover the rental supply, reviewing taxation, which today represents around 31% of the final price of housing, and governing with public and verifiable indicators. Everything else is a distraction. Enough of seeking sterile confrontation; we need a national strategy, a state pact, to guarantee access to housing, 'concludes Cos-Gayón.' Ignoring the data for a decade is the real problem. Valencia has not got to this point through bad luck, but because it has confused housing policy with communication policy."

About the Housing Observatory Chair

The Housing Observatory Chair at the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), created in 2016, was established to analyse the real estate market in Valencia in a scientific, technical, objective and public manner, from an institutional perspective, focusing on the study of demand behaviour and its relationship with supply, especially in the city of Valencia and its metropolitan area.

Its patronage is supported by Talvion, LandCo, DLS Homes, Doyou Media, HUB de Inversión Inmobiliaria, Urbania Developer, the Association of Developers of Valencia (APROVA), Viviendea, Be More 3D, Viraje, Edicover and the Official Association of Quantity Surveyors, Technical Architects and Building Engineers of Valencia.